The Sunk Cost of Running

Have you ever noticed that when an Elite Marathon Runner is having a bad day, they will just quit, pull of the course and call it day? The Elite realizes that even though they have ran 16 miles, with only 10 to go, that the 16 represents a sunk cost.

I ran Grandma's Marathon last year in Duluth, on an incredible warm and humid day, a Black Flag day. I was hoping to break 3 hours, but I realized it was not going to be in the cards when it was 66 degrees and 90%+ humidity by 8am. I still gave it a go and had a miserable race, I thought about quiting, but decided to tough it out, even though that meant a walk/run for the last 9 miles of the race.

Fast forward to October, I flew out to Minneapolis to race the Twin Cities Marathon. Once again the weather took a turn for the worst, the marathon race day forecast was calling for a starting time temperature of 70 and high humidity. My thoughts turned to my miserable race at Grandma's.

My goal was to break three hours and I doubted that this would be possible with the forecasted race day conditions. The Saturday before the Marathon I did a short run, the heat and humidity were stifling. But how could I not run the TC Marathon after paying $230 for a plane ticket, $100 for my marathon entry fee and miscellaneous expenses (lodging was taken care of by a friend).

I decided not to run because I understood the concept of a sunk cost. A sunk cost is costs that have been incurred and which cannot be recovered to any significant degree. The Denver Marathon was the following weekend, so my only additional cost would be the entry fee to the Denver Marathon which was $110, a sunk cost should never affect your future decision making process.

I finished up my short Saturday run, thought about what I was going to do and as a rational actor I cracked open a Shiner Bock and watched the Illinois Vs. Wisconsin football game. I would race Denver.

When I returned to Denver, not having run the Marathon, many of my friend's thought I made an irrational decision, not to race. This is because most people have "loss aversion" and if they were in my situation, they would have felt that they had reached the point of no return.

In hindsight it was a perfect move and I would do it again. A marathon requires a significant amount of training and time and if you are running with a time goal, I would always consider not running a marathon if conditions are not ideal and you know of a future marathon that is a week or two away.

If you understand sunk cost, you will live a happier life.

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