Why "Sugar" Shane Mosley Will Defeat Miguel Cotto

I have very high expectations for Saturday night. Tomorrow, I am going to order the pay-per-view broadcast a day early, send an email invitation to my boxing pals to stop by, pick up a few cases of beer, and have my phone set to speed dial the local Domino's Pizza. When you are prepping for the possible "fight of the year," you have to be ready.

I don't know how Shane Mosley (44-4, 37 KOs) plans to get ready for the unbeaten Miguel Cotto (30-0, 25 KOs) on Saturday night, but I can tell you why I think he will win.

Shane Mosley will beat Miguel Cotto, because he has a better chin, superior hand speed, tighter defense, steadier footwork, and most importantly, has faced better competition. For what he lacks in natural reflexes, Cotto makes up for in the areas of mental and physical determination. Very few fighters can match Cotto's effective aggressiveness, fighting spirit and overall stamina. These strengths will narrow the gap in natural talent between he and Shane. However, the talent gap will still be too considerableto overcome for Cotto, as I expect Mosley to impose his significant physical advantages (especially hand speed) on Cotto like no one before.

In a fight that will likely live up to its "fight of the year" hype, look for "Sugar" Shane Mosley to put on a sweet performance in front of the pro-Cotto crowd at Madison Square Garden. The crowd will help energize Cotto, but ultimately, they can't enter the ring to block Shane's punches or protect Miguel's shaky chin. The same fatal flaw (chin) that relegated "Glass Joe" to second-class citizenship in boxing video game lore, will lead to the end of Cotto's 30-fight unbeaten streak.

My prediction: Shane Mosley and Miguel Cotto will trade some heavy leather early on, but the accumulation of Mosley's straighter, sharper punches will fell the game Cotto by round ten.

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